Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19.
Identifieur interne : 000450 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000449; suivant : 000451Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19.
Auteurs : Hiroshi Nishiura [Allemagne]Source :
- Theoretical biology & medical modelling [ 1742-4682 ] ; 2007.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- histoire : Flambées de maladies, Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine.
- Allemagne, Cinétique, Flambées de maladies, Histoire du 20ème siècle, Humains, Incidence, Modèles théoriques, Temps.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Allemagne.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic : Germany.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- history : Disease Outbreaks, Influenza, Human.
- statistics & numerical data : Disease Outbreaks.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- History, 20th Century, Humans, Incidence, Kinetics, Models, Theoretical, Time.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Time variations in transmission potential have rarely been examined with regard to pandemic influenza. This paper reanalyzes the temporal distribution of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19 using the daily numbers of deaths, which totaled 8911 from 29 September 1918 to 1 February 1919, and the distribution of the time delay from onset to death in order to estimate the effective reproduction number, Rt, defined as the actual average number of secondary cases per primary case at a given time.
RESULTS
A discrete-time branching process was applied to back-calculated incidence data, assuming three different serial intervals (i.e. 1, 3 and 5 days). The estimated reproduction numbers exhibited a clear association between the estimates and choice of serial interval; i.e. the longer the assumed serial interval, the higher the reproduction number. Moreover, the estimated reproduction numbers did not decline monotonically with time, indicating that the patterns of secondary transmission varied with time. These tendencies are consistent with the differences in estimates of the reproduction number of pandemic influenza in recent studies; high estimates probably originate from a long serial interval and a model assumption about transmission rate that takes no account of time variation and is applied to the entire epidemic curve.
CONCLUSION
The present findings suggest that in order to offer robust assessments it is critically important to clarify in detail the natural history of a disease (e.g. including the serial interval) as well as heterogeneous patterns of transmission. In addition, given that human contact behavior probably influences transmissibility, individual countermeasures (e.g. household quarantine and mask-wearing) need to be explored to construct effective non-pharmaceutical interventions.
DOI: 10.1186/1742-4682-4-20
PubMed: 17547753
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
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This paper reanalyzes the temporal distribution of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19 using the daily numbers of deaths, which totaled 8911 from 29 September 1918 to 1 February 1919, and the distribution of the time delay from onset to death in order to estimate the effective reproduction number, Rt, defined as the actual average number of secondary cases per primary case at a given time.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>A discrete-time branching process was applied to back-calculated incidence data, assuming three different serial intervals (i.e. 1, 3 and 5 days). The estimated reproduction numbers exhibited a clear association between the estimates and choice of serial interval; i.e. the longer the assumed serial interval, the higher the reproduction number. Moreover, the estimated reproduction numbers did not decline monotonically with time, indicating that the patterns of secondary transmission varied with time. These tendencies are consistent with the differences in estimates of the reproduction number of pandemic influenza in recent studies; high estimates probably originate from a long serial interval and a model assumption about transmission rate that takes no account of time variation and is applied to the entire epidemic curve.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSION</b></p><p>The present findings suggest that in order to offer robust assessments it is critically important to clarify in detail the natural history of a disease (e.g. including the serial interval) as well as heterogeneous patterns of transmission. In addition, given that human contact behavior probably influences transmissibility, individual countermeasures (e.g. household quarantine and mask-wearing) need to be explored to construct effective non-pharmaceutical interventions.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">17547753</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2007</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>06</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2018</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>13</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1742-4682</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>4</Volume><PubDate><Year>2007</Year><Month>Jun</Month><Day>04</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Theoretical biology & medical modelling</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Theor Biol Med Model</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>20</MedlinePgn></Pagination><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">Time variations in transmission potential have rarely been examined with regard to pandemic influenza. This paper reanalyzes the temporal distribution of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19 using the daily numbers of deaths, which totaled 8911 from 29 September 1918 to 1 February 1919, and the distribution of the time delay from onset to death in order to estimate the effective reproduction number, Rt, defined as the actual average number of secondary cases per primary case at a given time.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">A discrete-time branching process was applied to back-calculated incidence data, assuming three different serial intervals (i.e. 1, 3 and 5 days). The estimated reproduction numbers exhibited a clear association between the estimates and choice of serial interval; i.e. the longer the assumed serial interval, the higher the reproduction number. Moreover, the estimated reproduction numbers did not decline monotonically with time, indicating that the patterns of secondary transmission varied with time. These tendencies are consistent with the differences in estimates of the reproduction number of pandemic influenza in recent studies; high estimates probably originate from a long serial interval and a model assumption about transmission rate that takes no account of time variation and is applied to the entire epidemic curve.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">The present findings suggest that in order to offer robust assessments it is critically important to clarify in detail the natural history of a disease (e.g. including the serial interval) as well as heterogeneous patterns of transmission. 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